{{first_name | Loyal Reader}},
My birth father, Ramin Heravi, left Iran in the late 1970s, right as the Shah was being ousted and the country was spiraling into the chaos of the new regime takeover. He left behind his home, his career, and even some family to seek a better life, he came here.
Ramin Heravi, my biological father, sometime in the late 80s, living in Mesa, Arizona.
THE SIGNAL
Learning of his legacy and sacrifice (I didn't grow up with him because I was adopted and I just learned of him within the last three and a half years…long story for an other day), I’m reminded of three things that guide investment and life decisions I make today:
The world can change overnight. Stability is a luxury, not a guarantee. Cherish the moment.
There is no safer harbor on the planet with the highest opportunity upside than the United States of America. When the world shakes, the smart money runs here.
Gratitude for gifts and blessed situations you currently have can dispel any darkness. Even in volatile times, focusing on our blessings and gratitude reveals the path to growth.The world feels like it is on fire.
As you know, Iran’s leadership has escalated its regional conflict, retaliating with strikes that have sent shockwaves through the global energy and security markets.
You only retaliate with bombs and destruction to neighboring countries when you know you’ve lost, and now have nothing more to lose. Iran’s regime knew they failed, and the shadow oil enterprise the US military halted would be the beginning of the end.
For most people, this is a moment of anxiety. But for those of us who look at the movement of global capital, this is a crack in a door that was historically locked.
The "Flight to Quality" is Accelerating
When Iran retaliated and began strikes on surrounding countries, it didn't just destabilize the Middle East; it unintentionally improved the strategic position of the United States. We are seeing a massive "flight to quality." As regional neighbors in the Middle East begin to unite against a common threat, we are witnessing the birth of new alliances.
This geopolitical shift continuously validates the U.S. dollar, it nullifies supposed “world-hate” against America that the media wants you to believe exists, and once again establishes the U.S. economy as the only logical destination for global wealth.
Prediction: The Great American Migration
I believe we are entering an era where America is going to become even more popular to move to and live in. I predict that new initiatives to bolster the economy are going to be established, and people from afar are going to move to America the right way, legally, to offer valuable skills, labor, and cutting-edge technology.
Because of this influx of human capital and the "safe harbor" effect of our economy, I believe real estate will most likely become even more valuable. My formal prediction is that U.S. real estate values will increase by 15% to 22% within the next five years. We aren't just looking at a recovery; we are looking at a fundamental revaluation of American land.
The Economic Reality: Why the Future is Bright
Despite the talking heads on our political threads, the data tells a story of incredible resilience. We are entering a phase where the economy is not just "holding on" but is poised for a significant leg up.
Interest Rates: The Fed has signaled a pivot. We are moving away from the "shock" phase of high rates and into a "stabilization" phase. Forecasts show rates settling in a range that allows for a massive spread between borrowing costs and cap rates, which is the "green light" for acquisitions.
Multifamily & Residential: We are STILL currently facing a national housing shortage of over 4 million units. In the multifamily sector, demand is projected to be 30% higher than the 10-year average throughout 2026. This is a supply-and-demand imbalance that favors owners and investors.
The Hotel Boom: Domestic travel is still strong. Consumers are prioritizing "experiences" over "goods." Hotel occupancy in key U.S. markets is projected to hit 70% this year, with RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) increasing by 5.5% annually.
Leasing & Industrial: The "reshoring" movement is real. Companies are bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. to avoid the very geopolitical risks we see in the Middle East and Asia. This is driving industrial leasing to record highs.
New Opportunities in a United World
The most fascinating part of this conflict is how it is encouraging the world to unite. New allies are emerging, and the United States is at the center of this new global coordination. This unity creates a more stable environment for trade and investment in the long run.
We are blessed to be here. While other parts of the world deal with systemic instability, we are sitting on the most fertile ground for wealth creation in human history. The dry powder sitting in family offices and with high-net-worth individuals and groups is at an all-time high: nearly $2.6 trillion is waiting to be deployed into U.S. real estate.
Final Thoughts
Don’t let the headlines distract you from the fundamentals. The world is changing, yes, but it is changing in a way that reinforces the value of American land and American buildings.
I am grateful for my birth father’s courage to leave a tyrannical regime behind, and I am grateful for the opportunity to build with you here. Stay focused on the opportunity, lean into the data, and remember that gratitude is the ultimate competitive advantage.
The future will have its bumps, but it’s looking favorable for real estate value preservation.
Wishing you success this week,
Andrew LeBaron
P.S. I’m active on LinkedIn. If you don’t follow me yet, would love your support, and would be happy to follow your journey:
P.S.S. I’m new to YouTube (I’m trying!) and could use more feedback, what real estate and capital markets content interest you most? Feel free to replay to this email and let me know.
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